French govt. report debunks optimism on all-electric cars
Dec 18, 2008 Information of the Day
In a week that saw a report claiming that the rate of rise of sea levels is not as bad as has been predicted, now leaked parts of a report commissioned by the French government has concluded there “isn’t much future” in all-electric cars, at least before the year 2030. The 129-page report, drawn up by Jean Syrota, one of France’s leading energy experts, was originally destined to be unveiled at the Paris motor show in September. The Sarkozy Administration has not publicly commented on the report, but it seems unlikely it will ever be officially published.
In what may come as a surprise to some, the Syrota report concludes that the internal combustion engine still has a lot of life in it. With advances in engine design, lighter materials, start-stop technology, and expanded use of electric-gas and electric-diesel hybrids, fleet mileage could be made to double. High battery pack costs, limited range and speed, and the absence of any battery charging infrastructure all combine to make all-electric vehicles unviable, according to the report. It predicts these factors are all unlikely to change significantly over the next two decades.
The timeline of 22 years to viability was based on extrapolation of current rates of progress in battery cost and energy density improvements. However, technological innovation has proven very difficult to predict in advance, with many fields often progressing much faster than anticipated. The green technology wonks will be hoping that Syrota is proved wrong soon.
Tags: electric cars, France
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